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Could Toyota be ahead of the curve by predicting a return to popularity for compact pickups with its A-BAT concept? (Photo courtesy of Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc.)

SANTA MONICA, California — Contrary to theories from critics with HOV-lane envy, results of a new fuel-price study by Edmunds.com indicate the chief concern of those buying hybrid-electric vehicles may not be to demonstrate their environmental credentials: They’re buying hybrids to save gas.

By analyzing the number of visits for every vehicle in the market to that model’s Vehicle Details page at Edmunds.com, company data-crunchers then played a little game, correlating to see what would happen if the price of gasoline rose from its $3.01 average price in December to a theoretical $4 per gallon.

Result: Consideration of hybrid vehicles skyrocketed — while interest in “traditional” SUVs and full-size pickups hid the skids.

The study, which correlates the relationship — “elasticity” — between gas prices and consideration of specific vehicle models and types showed that about $2.80 per gallon currently is a “psychological turning point for consumers,” says David Tompkins, executive director of business solutions at Edmunds.

The Edmunds.com analysis indicates that a lot more shoppers consider fuel-efficient vehicles when the gas price is higher than $2.80 per gallon, says Tompkins.

Overall, that means hybrids see a gigantic 502 percent increase in customer consideration if gasoline goes to $4 per gallon. The study’s biggest winner is the Saturn Aura Green Line Hybrid, with an astounding increase of 1,343 percent, followed by the Smart Fortwo, with an increase of 881 percent.

Many hybrids scored a consideration increase of more than 400 percent. The class stalwart, the Toyota Prius, scored a comparatively meager 259 percent jump.

Strangely enough, the biggest loser in the $4-per-gallon game: the Lexus LS 600h L — the pricey hybrid variant of the Lexus flagship. Even the staunchest hybrid supporters may have calculated the LS 600h L’s combined 21 mpg versus the conventional LS 460 L’s 19 mpg doesn’t justify the hybrid’s giant price premium, which approaches $30,000.

As a whole, however, traditional SUVs, full-size SUVs and large pickups dropped the most in the study. Every model in those market segments drops in consideration if the price of gas rises to $4.

Something else for automakers to consider: If gasoline goes to $4 per gallon, it may mean a renaissance for the midsize-pickup market, which has fallen off the cliff since about the turn of the century. Several small/midsize pickups saw increased consideration in the Edmunds.com study, as compact pickups once again become an attractive alternative to thirstier full-size models. Maybe a partial explanation for Toyota’s A-BAT concept that was unveiled at the recent Detroit auto show?

And luxury makers can rest easy. The luxury car and luxury SUV segments, although containing some of the least-efficient models on the market, sustained modest decreases of just 15 percent. Explanation: Buyers considering these models typically have enough money that a rise in the price of gasoline of just $1 over current levels isn’t enough to dissuade them from purchasing a luxury model.

A more comprehensive rundown of the results, including a chart listing the best and worst vehicle segments under the $4-per-gallon scenario, can be found at Edmunds Auto Observer.

What this means to you: Gas already costs more than $2.80 per gallon. Does the price of fuel have you considering a more-efficient replacement for your ride? — Bill Visnic, Contributor